Impact of the Possible Return of Ukrainian Refugees from Poland on the Real Estate Market

Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, millions of Ukrainians have been forced to leave their homes and seek refuge in neighboring countries, particularly Poland. Poland has been one of the main destinations for Ukrainian refugees, providing them with shelter and support. However, with the changing geopolitical landscape and potential stabilization in Ukraine, many refugees may decide to return home. This process will inevitably affect the real estate market in both Ukraine and Poland. In this article, we examine possible scenarios and their consequences for the housing market.
Migration Trends and Their Impact on Housing
The large-scale return of Ukrainian refugees from Poland could have a significant impact on two interrelated real estate markets: the Polish and Ukrainian markets. Some of the expected changes include:
• Decrease in rental demand in Poland – A substantial number of vacated rental properties could lead to lower rental prices.
• Increase in housing demand in Ukraine – Returning citizens will require housing, creating new demand and potentially driving up prices.
• Shift in investment priorities – Changing population needs will influence the investment strategies of developers and real estate investors.
Impact on the Real Estate Market in Poland
Over the past few years, the Polish real estate market has seen a rise in housing prices and rental rates, largely driven by the influx of Ukrainian migrants. However, their return could lead to the following effects:
1. Decline in Rental Prices
A significant portion of Ukrainians in Poland rent apartments. If many leave, rental rates could decline due to increased supply.
This will particularly affect major cities such as Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, Gdańsk, and Poznań.
Property owners may have to adjust their rental prices and offer more favorable conditions to attract tenants.
2. Decrease in Housing Prices
The influx of vacant apartments into the market could lead to lower housing prices.
The budget housing segment, which was most in demand among Ukrainian refugees, may experience the biggest price drops.
Property investors seeking rental income may face declining profitability.
3. Slowdown in Construction Growth
Polish developers have expanded their projects in response to rising housing demand.
A decrease in demand may result in some projects being postponed or halted.
A slowdown in construction growth could have wider economic consequences, as the construction sector is a key component of the Polish economy.
Impact on the Real Estate Market in Ukraine
The return of Ukrainian citizens could be a driving force behind the growth of the real estate market in Ukraine. Expected trends include:
1. Increase in Housing Demand
Returning citizens will actively seek housing in their hometowns.
The greatest demand is expected in Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, Dnipro, and Kharkiv.
A lack of available new housing in some regions may lead to market shortages.
2. Rising Real Estate Prices
The return of a large number of people will inevitably push housing prices upward.
The primary housing market may react quickly, as demand for new properties increases.
Developers will likely speed up construction projects to meet demand.
3. Growth in the Rental Market
Not all returnees will be able to purchase housing immediately, increasing rental demand.
Cities with strong economic potential will see rising rental prices.
Government programs aimed at supporting rental affordability may help moderate price hikes.
4. Expansion of the Construction Sector
Construction companies will have an incentive to develop new projects.
Government programs may subsidize housing development.
Infrastructure investments will focus on rebuilding damaged housing and creating new residential complexes.
Potential Challenges and Risks
While the return of refugees may have positive effects on Ukraine’s real estate market, several challenges remain:
• Economic Instability – Returning citizens may face employment difficulties, affecting their purchasing power.
• Infrastructure Constraints – Rebuilding damaged regions will require substantial resources.
• Limited Access to Credit – High mortgage rates may make home purchases less accessible.
• Labor Market Pressure – Increased job competition may impact income levels.
Conclusion
The expected return of Ukrainian refugees from Poland will have a significant impact on the real estate markets of both countries. In Poland, rental demand and housing prices may decrease, prompting changes in investment strategies among developers. In Ukraine, demand for housing will rise, leading to higher prices, a more active construction sector, and increased investment opportunities.
Government authorities, developers, and investors should prepare in advance by developing strategic solutions that accommodate these new economic realities. A balanced real estate policy will help minimize potential negative effects and create conditions for sustainable economic growth.